Why The Miami Heat Are All-In with Pocket Aces

Commentary8 years ago8 min readHarrison Cytryn

“You have to make your moment and get them to call your name. And to win, you have to go all in. Not half in. Not part way in. All in.” – Pat Riley

If you’ve ever played Texas Hold’em, you know the best possible cards you could have “in the hole” are Ace-Ace, or pocket aces. Obviously, there are other good hands that you could have (Ace-King suited, pocket queens, etc.), but when you look down and you see pocket aces, you know the best move is to push all your chips into the middle of the table and go all-in.

Anything can happen at that point. The five cards that are revealed later (the flop, the turn, and the river) could either go your way or lady luck could be a cruel temptress, but you’ve put yourself in the best position to win.

To start the 2015-2016 season, the Miami Heat are in this position, with a great chance be one of the final teams playing in June.

The Heat is Deep

Unlike last season, the Miami Heat has 15 guys that can make contributions every night. And even if Wade, Bosh, Dragic, or Whiteside need a night off, the other players should be able to fill in admirably.

Along with the core Heaters that finished the season with the team, the Heat bring back a healthy Chris Bosh and Josh McRoberts, a motivated Gerald Green on a minimum deal, a savvy veteran in A’mare Stoudemire (STAT), expected bounce back seasons from Mario Chalmers and Chris “Birdman” Andersen, as well as two excellent rookie defenders in Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson.

Combined with the familiar faces from last year, this Heat team should be a defensive juggernaut, a team that can score easily on the fastbreak, and an offense that can score in the half-court as well.

If injuries like last year rear their head, we might be having a different discussion, but I’m bullish on the Heat’s chances this season.

Combined with the familiar faces from last year, this Heat team should be a defensive juggernaut, a team that can score easily on the fastbreak, and an offense that can score in the half-court as well.

More Firepower Off the Bench

With all the injuries last year, the Heat had very little help off the bench by season’s end. There was Chalmers, who was shooting a career worst from the three-point line, rookies Tyler Johnson and James Ennis, a tired looking Birdman, a lost Michael Beasley (not re-signed), and Henry Walker (hopefully banished to Mongolia).

The Heat should have a lot more firepower off the bench this season (Am I allowed to use words that bring up images of gunfire or will I be fined as well?). Gerald Green was the Heat’s best player in the preseason and he looks like he can be instant offense for this team.

Green averaged 17.8 points per game along with 4.4 rebounds while shooting 48% from the field and 41.7% from the three-point line. He’ll be extremely important as a 6th man for the Heat as well as a vital scorer to help space the floor and fly out on fastbreaks.

The other key player off the bench will be Josh McRoberts, who I have nicknamed the Heat’s “Swiss Army Knife.” McRoberts, or McBob, is the Heat’s best passer, which is an amazing skill at 6’10”. He sees the court like an all-star point guard, has really nice touch on his passes and rarely has to look at his teammate to deliver a perfect pass. And some of his alley-oops to Gerald Green in the preseason got me so pumped.

Along with his passing, McRoberts can really rebound and defend, as well as shoot the three and take the ball into the post. He really can do it all for the Heat and his health will be a key factor in how far the Heat can advance.

In addition to these two, whatever positive minutes STAT, Birdman and Udonis Haslem can give the Heat to round out the frontcourt will be huge. The Heat are hoping that Whiteside can play a ton of minutes, but when he needs rest or gets into foul trouble, the Heat will need these three guys to step up when their number is called.

Fans seem to be concerned over the lack of three-point shooting options, which could lead to an issue of spacing on the court. But along with Green and McBob, Chalmers, Johnson, Winslow should be able to help space the court.

Many people are concerned about STAT’s lack of defense when he’s in the game, but when he plays, I think there will be a lot more pros than cons.

Fans seem to be concerned over the lack of three-point shooting options, which could lead to an issue of spacing on the court. But along with Green and McBob, Chalmers, Johnson, Winslow should be able to help space the court for the Heat. And if it becomes a huge issue for the Heat, Pat Riley will make a move bring in a shooter.

I thought the Heat needed a shooter with the #10 pick, but Winslow was too big of a steal to pass up. The Heat has enough guys off the bench that can put the ball into the basket.

Form a F*cking Wall

Along with a retooled bench that should be able to score efficiently, the Heat should be a really good defensive team. Even without Bosh to end the season, the Heat did a nice job contesting shots and making teams work to score.

Now add Bosh, one of the best pick-and-roll defenders in the league, back into a lineup that has Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng, and Hassan Whiteside, and the Heat will be wrecking some havoc on the defensive end.

Add in two super defensive-minded rookies who can shut down nearly everyone on the wings, while bringing back Heat staples in Chalmers, Haslem, and Birdman, and the strength of this team should be the defense.

Anyone who is worried about this aspect of the Heat has been focusing too much on the preseason, and not on what this team will become during the season.

Rookie Contributions

The two rookies, Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson, will play a large role in the upcoming season for the Heat. Justise Winslow was the steal of the draft and was a peace offering from the basketball gods after a season of turmoil for the Heat starting with that dude going back to Cleveland and ending with almost every single member of the Heat out of the lineup or on the training table.

The Heat sees Winslow as a superstar in the making … a playmaker who can take you off the dribble, get to the basket with a rare combination of speed and strength, run the fast break and finish around the rim.

Justise’s biggest role will be as a defensive stopper off the bench for Heat, as that is his best skill. But the Heat sees Winslow as a superstar in the making. Winslow is a playmaker who can take you off the dribble, get to the basket with a rare combination of speed and strength, run the fast break and finish around the rim.

Justise seems to have two weaknesses early on: outside shooting and free throw shooting. He struggled from the line at Duke, but he managed to shoot over 40% from three, and he really turned it on during the NCAA tournament. Winslow’s shooting will only get better as the season goes along, and his other skills will outweigh any shooting woes he may have.

The real wildcard is Richardson. He was an All-American defender at Tennessee, but the Heat really like what he did in his senior year. Due to all of the injuries on his team, Richardson ended up playing a ton of point guard and developed a decent three-point shot, where he made 35-percent of his attempts.

If J-Rich ends up really developing a nice three ball, it is likely that he could take over Chalmers role with Rio then being traded before the deadline. This will be an interesting development to watch all season long.

The East is Just Eh

The East really is mediocre as hell. The Cavs are the same team as last year, with the same worries about superstars always being hurt. And whether Cavs fans want to admit it or not, Kevin Love going down really helped them find a defensive identity that I’m not sure they can find again with him on the court.

The Bulls are dependent on Derrick Rose not being hurt and being a superstar, which is nearly impossible, and the Hawks won’t be the same team without DeMarre Carroll.

The Bucks and Wizards will be fun teams, but the Heat is better than both of them. And the rest of the East will consist of nice playoff teams, but the Raptors, Celtics and Pacers aren’t really going to scare anyone.

So, what does that mean for the Heat? It means that Miami is in a really good position to make some noise this year. It doesn’t mean that they are guaranteed to beat the Cavs in the Eastern Conference Finals, but it does mean that if this team gels and hits their stride, it’ll be a really fun ride.

The Heat is sitting at the poker table with pocket aces. It’s time to push all the chips into the middle of the table and go all-in.