Give-and-Go: Validating The Random Scrub Heat Killer

Insight8 years ago5 min readGiancarlo Navas

Welcome to Give-and-Go! This is a new series where I’ll be point out some interesting numbers for the Heat in a short, easy, visual and digestible way. So, lots of pretty graphs and gifs. Yay, technology!

It’s always going to be short, so think of this as something you’d read when grabbing a coffee or waiting in line. Credit to @Heat_CM for coming up with the awesome name.


Ah, the Random Scrub Heat Killer (RSHK), the single greatest thing Miami Heat fans fear most. More than Stephen Curry taking a wide open 3 or Justise Winslow attempting a jump shot during the final minutes of a game.

Marcus Thornton spotting up from the wing? Now that is scary. Call us crazy all you want, but I swear it’s true! He is terrifying along with a handful of other journeymen shooters.

To avoid alienating some of our audience, the RSHK is as its name describes: A player who isn’t known for being great but goes on to shoot the lights out against the Miami Heat. It’s a phenomenon, and while some alleged RSHK are mirages, there are a couple which are indeed real.

First up is unanimous first ballot Hall of Famer of RSHK, Marcus Thornton. Below are some of his shot charts. The first is Thornton’s shot chart for his career and the second is his shot chart versus Miami only, via NBA Savant.

Marcus ThorntonMarcus Thornton HEAT

Oh well, would you look at that. Thornton’s 3 point shooting percentage spikes, combining for 51.4 percent in 14 games (his highest 3 point percentage versus any opponent). In above the break threes, he’s averaging 45.5 percent (25 of 55), well above the league average of 34.7 percent. 😱

Want more you say? Let’s look at Random Scrub Heat Killer All-Timer, Wayne Ellington.

Wayne EllingtonWayne Ellington HEAT

Oh wow look, the same! Now, it’s important to understand that despite the obvious difference in sample size, these players shot charts versus the Heat span across their entire careers.

The evidence cannot be overlooked, these guys play well above their shooting averages against the Heat, particularly from beyond the arc.

Below is perhaps the craziest shot chart in the history of basketball. It belongs to Stephen Curry. And while he isn’t a RSHK, it’s interesting to juxtapose Ellington’s shot chart against the Heat to Curry’s shot chart for his career (as of March 12, 2016).

Stephen Curry

Essentially, Ellington and Thornton become a comparable shooter to Curry when they play the Heat. THINK ABOUT THAT FOR A SECOND!

Now, I know some of you will say, “BUT GIANCARLO, CURRY CAN SHOOT OFF THE DRIBBLE AND BLAH, BLAH, BLAH, ATTEMPTS … BLAH, SAMPLE SIZE, BLAH.”

Yeah, duh … I get that. That’s not the point. The point is that some of these scrubs shoot well above their averages when they play the Heat and their shooting percentages look just as good as Curry’s. That’s absolutely insane.

However, Heat Twitter has certainly declared its share of players each game as Random Scrub Heat Killers when the numbers don’t really support it too much. Exhibit A: Gary Neal.

While Neal’s shooting is still above league average, he isn’t shooting at a better clip against Miami than he normally does.

Gary Neal

Gary Neal HEAT

He’s just a good shooter, but it feels worse because of his 3-point barrage during the 2013 Finals against San Antonio.

 

Same goes for Jerryd Bayless and Anthony Toliver. Their differences in shooting against Miami seems negligible.

All things considered, some of the Random Scrub Heat Killer phenomena is just our plain old eyes lying to us. But believe it or not, there is some validation out there for the superstitious Heat fan. So much so, we should all fear the moment Thornton or Ellington come to town.