The Blame Game: Deconstructing The Heat-Hornets Foul Disparity

Insight8 years ago6 min readGiancarlo Navas

The highs and the lows, the abundance of Twitter Coach and the fears of crippling defeat are back. Oh, how Miami has missed living and dying with every shot.

Every play gets hyper-dissected, and every player (or coach) shares the fault. No one is safe. Not championship head coach Erik Spoelstra, not three-time champion Dwyane Wade and sure as hell not professional punching bag Hassan Whiteside.

The carousel of blame spins round and round and everyone feasts on its latest victims.

Wade shot poorly (4 of 11) in Game 4? Let’s ignore his improved second half defense, playmaking down the stretch and his rebounding.

Spoelstra? Let’s not acknowledge the adjustments he made after halftime, where Justise Winslow spent time defending Jeremy Lin and took Frank Kaminsky off the dribble to force the Hornets into playing small ball.

Or how about the staggered screen sets Miami ran to get Whiteside more shots at the rim?

It’s easy to cast blame, and it’s hard to think. Basketball is an intricate sport with many moving parts. A coach needs to manage matchups and adjustments – all while having the prudence to avoid burning out your star players with heavy minutes.

The Heat, after relishing its long rest in between games, now only has a day of rest in between their final two or three games this series, emphasizing the importance of Spoelstra’s minutes-management.

It’s to be understood that fans will react emotionally after a crushing loss and it is unreasonable to ask fans not to look for answers. However, there’s a fine line between reaction and overreaction.

In the regular season, the Heat posted a minus-2.0 net rating on the road and a plus-7.2 net rating at home. Their offensive efficiency drops from 107.7 to 100.6 and their defensive efficiency is plus-2.0 points worse per 100 possessions on the road.

This faltering on the road was expected, and yet Miami still had a chance to steal one late in Game Four – despite finishing a quarter where the Heat converted on only three field goals.

Miami will return home where it has played well all season long (14-2 since the All-Star break) and will play a Charlotte team that it probably should beat, dealt with the ultimate task of stealing a game on the road.

The Heat clubbed the Hornets for two straight games, and Hornets coach Steve Clifford made some adjustments. Give Spoelstra the time to do the same.


Are Heat Fans Wrong To Blame The Refs?

GettyImages-524236790.0The Heat have allowed the Hornets to take 30 free throws per game this series, which is far more than the 21.5 attempts they gave up during the regular season. That’s also slightly above Charlotte’s regular season average of 24 free throws per game.

The Heat, who averaged 23 free throws per game, are equaling just the same with 23.5 attempts in the playoffs.

While I don’t have much interest in referee talk, it is clear that the Hornets are getting a lot more calls than usual and Miami is committing more fouls than they normally do.

The Hornets are leading the NBA in free throw attempts in the playoffs. Miami has committed 23 personal fouls per game in the postseason while in the regular season they fouled the fourth-least in the NBA at 18.3. The team in third? The Charlotte Hornets.

Now, while the Hornets are getting a lot of foul calls, they are currently second in the NBA in drives per game these playoffs at 34 compared to 24 in the regular season. That adds up to plus-6 free throw attempts and plus-10 drives per game compared to their regular season averages.

Part of this stems from Miami’s insistence to guard the Hornets’ perimeter shooting (Nekias Duncan wrote a great piece explaining that), which shot 36 percent during the regular season and is now shooting 24 percent in the postseason.

Perhaps more importantly, is the Hornets are taking 17 threes per game as opposed to 29 in the regular season. Miami has eliminated the Hornets three-point shooting this series, and what you are left is pick-and-roll defense that seems lackluster, when in reality, it is doing its job.

Limiting a good three-point shooting team to take almost half as many attempts while shooting them at a rate that’s 12 percent worse is what you want.

Also of note, the Heat are averaging nearly 25 drives per game during the playoffs, which is a slight drop-off from the 30 drives per game they averaged in the regular season.

So, while the Hornets are getting more calls, they are attacking the rim a lot more and Miami is letting them for good reason.

Despite the free throw and foul disparity, the series is tied (2-2) with Miami headed back home and the chance to go up 3-2. Expect adjustments to be made.